Tag Archives: expenses

Are you Still Forecasting Only your Revenue and Expenses? Part 2

Can you tell if the budget you just put together is achievable?

In part 1 of this series we saw why a forecasted Income Statement is insufficient when preparing a corporate plan and budget. In this installment we will learn how we can make this plan and budget complete and useful to management on all levels.

The real question is how to reliably and consistently forecast a Balance Sheet given all the difficulties associated with this task. By now I believe most readers of this blog realize that using a spreadsheet is the wrong approach to forecasting a Balance Sheet, see Forecasting a Balance Sheet in a Spreadsheet World. In fact, this effort will be futile, as many finance professionals have discovered. There are companies that have a rudimentary forecasted Balance Sheet done in a spreadsheet; however, all critical numbers are a rough approximation of budget period GL account balances, and should not be relied on.

Many dedicated planning and budgeting applications allow their users to construct a forecasted Balance Sheet, however, users are required to program formulas, functions and links just like in a regular spreadsheet, and the results are the same as what you would get from doing this in a spreadsheet application (e.g., Excel). It seems to me that allowing users to program their balance sheets was an afterthought by the designers of these planning and budgeting applications. The result here, however complex the model, will only show rough approximations of key account balances (e.g., Cash, A/R, A/P).

I’ve looked at many planning and budgeting software applications that claim to be a departure from spreadsheets. In many ways they are.  In other ways their functionality is just like using spreadsheets: Tedious and time consuming programming of formulas and links, troubleshooting of errors, and the inability to arrive at an accurate and complete set of future period financial statements.

There is one main reason why most planning and budgeting applications cannot deliver a complete and accurate Balance Sheet: They do not treat the budget as an extension of the actual accounting system into future periods and they cannot accomplish that due to design deficiencies. To be successful at delivering an accurate and complete Balance Sheet, the planning and budgeting solution must operate like an actual accounting system and have its own General Ledger and subsidiary ledgers (revenue, expenses, fixed assets, debt, equity, etc.).

This can only be accomplished by having the planning and budgeting software make journal entries in its own “General Ledger” in response to all budget line data that has accumulated from all business units. A more detailed explanation can be found here, Those Debits and Credits. This GL must be linked to the actual accounting GL and mirror its accounts.

With the forecasted Balance Sheet accounts updated in each budget period with debits and credits, automatically posted by the software and reflecting all activity as dictated by the budget, you consistently get a complete and accurate Balance sheet for each period defined in the budget. The Statement of Cash Flows will be just as accurate and complete since it is generated from the forecasted Balance Sheet and Income Statement.

When you work with Budget Maestro from Centage Corporation you realize why automatically obtaining forecasted Balance Sheet (and of course an Income Statement and a Statement of Cash Flows) is possible. It is the only software solution I am aware of that employs this future period automated journal entry approach to generating accurate and complete forecasted financial statements. And they do it by design and not as an afterthought.

Are you Still Forecasting Only your Revenue and Expenses? Part 1

Can you tell if the budget you just put together is achievable?

If you are still budgeting and then re-forecasting only your revenue and expenses you may have run into a well known, yet often ignored phenomenon: Missing budget revenue targets due to cash shortages, inadequate credit lines, poorly timed financing arrangements, etc. This is very common during periods of growth, where a company must forecast its revenues and expenses required to achieve these growth objectives during the duration of the strategic and budget plan.

Companies that are in high growth industries and even established enterprises that cannot achieve very high gross margins soon find out that they have the potential to become very profitable but invariably run into one or more cash crunches along the way.  In fact, many organizations will not be able to deliver the results outlined in their budget for that reason alone. Of course, there are other reasons why companies miss their budget numbers but this discussion only focuses on poor and incomplete planning and budgeting.

Forecasting revenue and expenses is relatively easy if you have a solid strategic and operational plan. You can even do it using a set of spreadsheets, although I strongly recommend against it for many reasons, see my article Should Excel be Expelled?. The end result will be a forecasted income statement with columns of numbers for all periods in your budget. The trouble is that this is using accrual based accounting, which means that in reality a good portion of the forecasted sales in a certain period will bring in cash in a future period (in 30, 60 days or however many days each customer has to pay their invoices).

To make things worse, in order to make these forecasted sales you have to have inventory (if you are a product based business). This inventory must be readily available to ship in the period you say in your plan you will be shipping it. This means that you most likely have to either buy or make that product in a period earlier than the period the sale takes place. Now this implies that you had to spend cash either on the purchase of the finished product or on raw material, labor and outside services, with each one of these components occurring prior to the period in which the sale took place and with their unique payment terms.

Now consider forecasting new products or services that have not yet been developed and tested. Research and development expense that is often necessary prior to introducing new products will most likely show on the forecasted income statement; however, judging by the Income Statement alone you won’t know whether or not you will have the cash to perform these activities. If you are unable to complete R&D, testing, and any required certifications, etc., your new product availability may be delayed or the entire new product line may be cancelled, which in reality will result in not achieving the sales forecast for this new product line. The conclusion here, again, is that you need to have visibility into your cash balance during the budget period.

Will your forecasted income statement tell you whether or not you will have the cash to accomplish all that? Of course not. To do that you need a forecasted Balance Sheet and a forecasted Statement of Cash Flows which will further clarify where and when this cash is coming from (in what amount, from what source and in which period). Furthermore, these two statements must be tightly linked to the Income Statement and dynamically change as budget items affecting the Income Statement change, or as various versions and budget scenarios are evaluated. A budgeted profit and loss statement that most companies prepare annually will never accomplish that.

By now I hope I have you convinced that you must also forecast your Balance Sheet: Why you must Forecast your Balance Sheet Part 1 and Part 2. If you have a complete and accurate forecasted Balance Sheet and a forecasted Income Statement you can relatively easily compile a forecasted Statements of Cash Flows. Now you can have an insight into the future financial health of the company, and particularly into your cash needs along the budget timeline.

In the next installment we will see how a company can practically forecast its Balance Sheet using modern forecasting tools.